Is District 15 on Strike Again
CIA Director Burns subsequently went to Moscow to try and intimidate Putin into revoking troop buildup on Ukrainian border
[Russell Bentley, a Texan and author of this article, served in the Donbass army. His motivation was to fight fascism; he envisioned himself as an heir to members of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain during the Spanish Civil War.
In part one, Bentley'south provides an assessment of the current tensions in the Ukraine and the graphic symbol of the regime. Ranked as one of the virtually corrupt governments in the world, information technology is a monstrous creation of the U.South. empire guilty of large-scale war crimes.
In office two, Bentley discusses three potential military options for Russian federation. CAM's position on this conflict is to endorse the Minsk protocol, which focuses on a diplomatic settlement that offers the Eastern Ukrainian provinces considerable autonomy and could assistance defuse tensions in the region.
The third military option discussed by Bentley—the Kyiv plan which would entail a Russian march on Kyiv—has iii primary dangers: a) Ukrainian rightists and nationalists would mobilize against the Russians and pro-Russian forces, prompting a prolonged and devastating war that could be a quagmire for Russia (rather than a breeze, equally Bentley suggests); b) a Russian invasion would potentially ignite World War Iii by drawing in the U.S. and NATO; and c) it could even lead to the advent of nuclear war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be conscious of these dangers and intent on restraining hawkish elements inside the Russian war machine—a good thing. At the same time, he has made it clear that Russia will defend its interests and not be pushed around.—Editors]
Part 1
On October 18th, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Iii met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to affirm U.S. support for Ukraine'southward state of war confronting its eastern provinces.
Since the showtime of the conflict in 2014, the United States has provided more than $ii.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, including $275 million in armed forces assistance that has been announced in the final ten months under President Joe Biden, a staunch champion of the state of war from its inception.
In early November, President Biden dispatched CIA Director William F. Burns to Moscow to warn the Kremlin about its troop buildup on the Ukraine border and to try and force information technology to back off. Secretary of State Antony Blinken followed upwardly this past week past threatening Russian federation further in a joint press briefing in Washington with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Ukraine, however, started the war following the February 2014 U.S. backed coup and carried out sustained war crimes.
These crimes include: a) the contempo kidnapping and torture of a Russian ceasefire monitor in Lugansk; b) a contempo set on on Staromaryevka, a settlement of 180 civilians in the de-militarized "Grayness Zone," which included the kidnapping of viii more than unarmed civilians (who were too Russian citizens) past neo-Nazi terrorists; and c) the utilize of a Turkish Bayraktar attack drone against Donbass defense forces.
All this is in add-on to the repeated shelling of civilian areas and infrastructure forth with a hardening of war rhetoric by the Kyiv regime—with U.S. backing.
Readying for War
The principal hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine lies with the Minsk peace accords—which includes a provision that would allow for considerable autonomy for the eastern provinces. Predictably, the U.Due south. and Ukraine accept shown little interest in adhering to the Minsk accords.
A no-fly zone is currently being enforced by Russia in the airspace over the Donbass Republic. Russian federation cannot recognize the Donetsk Republic because information technology would invite further U.S. sanctions and efforts at political isolation; the Donetsk Commonwealth is considered to exist a renegade and the U.S. wants Russia to stay out of the war.
All military units of the DPR are currently on full gainsay alert. News reports and videos have appeared with Russian armor, including "hundreds" of heavy combat vehicles, and fourscore,000 to 90,000 troops, moving toward the Ukrainian border from the Bryansk, Voronezh and Rostov military districts. They are stationed at Novy Yerkovich—a iv-hour (250 km) drive to Kyiv—and along the border well-nigh Kharkov, which lies a scant 30 kilometers from Russia's border.
The troop buildup indicates that Russia is prepared to defend the Donbass region, which consists of almost a million Russian citizens, and to potentially go further and liberate the function of Ukraine populated primarily by indigenous and Russian-speaking Russians.
The U.Southward./European union/NATO and Ukraine have all been pretending since 2014 that "Russia invaded Ukraine"—which it never did, though Ukrainian provocations make it more than probable that it before long will.
The war in Ukraine is not a Ukrainian civil war, nor is information technology a war betwixt Russians and Ukrainians.
Information technology is a war past resurgent international neo-Nazism, led by the USA against a people fighting for their autonomy backed by a reinvigorated Great Power, Russia, which wants to aggrandize its regional influence and counteract a legitimate security threat on its border.
World Flash Point
The fight in Donbass is one of the major world's flash points aslope Syria and Taiwan—where U.South. provocations threaten a major war with Prc.
If the West forces a armed services confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, it can be sure it will confront one with China over Taiwan simultaneously, neither of which it has whatever take a chance of winning. The Russians and Chinese have forged a partnership against Western, primarily U.Due south. aggression in the political, economic, and military spheres.
In Syria, the Turks (a NATO member) accept in recent days directly threatened Russian war machine installations and troops; Should they really acquit out attacks on Russians in Syria, Russian federation has fabricated clear it volition fire dorsum. Turkish troops are now likewise on the ground in Ukraine, involved in combat operations against Donbass Defense Forces. This likewise, is a major and recent escalation.
Russian federation Prepares Its Saddle
But it is in Donbass that the situation is the about incendiary. In response to recent Ukrainian provocations and acts of terrorism, Russia is again sending a military machine task force to its border with Ukraine, as it did in the spring of this yr, which stopped the planned U.S./Ukrainian offensive in its tracks.
After the offensive was scrubbed and the situation de-escalated, the Russian troops withdrew from the border, but at present over again have returned. This time, indications are that the Russian formations are preparing to, at minimum, come into Donbass as peacekeepers, and perhaps go as far every bit Kharkov and Odessa as Liberators. Peradventure even to Kyiv.
Equally the recent words of Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev and others have fabricated clear, the Russians accept now decided that the time for talking is over. There is an sometime saying near Russians that applies perfectly well to the current situation—"The Russians are slow to saddle their horses, merely when they practise, they ride very, very fast."
Those horses have now been saddled.
Responsibleness to Protect (R2P)
If the Russians were to deepen their involvement in the Ukraine, they would not be doing anything the U.S. and NATO have not done themselves on more than one occasion.
Russia non only has therightto protect its citizens, information technology has the responsibility to do and then, under international law.
The "R2P" or "Responsibility to Protect" concept is based on three "pillars" –
Colonnade I—Each private land has the responsibility to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, indigenous cleansing, and crimes confronting humanity.
Pillar Ii—"States pledge to assistance each other in their protection responsibilities."
Pillar Iii—If any state is "apparently failing" in its protection responsibilities, and then states should take commonage action to protect the population" in a "timely and decisive response."
The UN Security Quango has recognized and reaffirmed its delivery to the R2P in more than lxxx resolutions. R2P as such has the forcefulness of international constabulary.
The flip side of R2P is that information technology has been used every bit an alibi by the near powerful countries for international state of war crimes and has resulted in the trampling of state sovereignty.
One of the requirements of R2P is a UN Security Quango resolution blessing its implementation. Though this will never happen in the instance of Ukraine, there can be no doubt that Ukraine is, in fact, guilty of all the crimes that R2P was created to prevent, including a) war crimes, b) ethnic cleansing, and c) crimes against humanity, all of which accept been, and continue to be, committed by the Kyiv authorities and its war machine on a daily ground.
Russian intervention as such could be justified nether the R2P doctrine–though information technology is unlikely any NATO countries would acknowledge this.
Who Will Terminate the Crimes Confronting Humanity?
The list of Kyiv's war crimes under international constabulary include: a) denial of water to almost 2.v million civilians in Crimea, b) the intentional targeting of civilians, journalists and medical personnel by artillery and snipers, c) random terror attacks on civilian areas, d) kidnapping, e) rape, f) torture and g) murder.
The Russians have over 2,000 specific war crimes cases open against the Kyiv authorities and its proxies, and more than are being opened daily. Even the U.s. has opened war crimes investigations into at least 7 U.S. citizens who fought on the Kyiv side in the state of war.
These investigations into kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder are based on eyewitness, and video and forensic testify. It volition be the outset time the U.S. has prosecuted anyone under the War Crimes Deed since its passage into law in 1996, a quarter century agone.
The Ukrainian military has as of this writing massacred at least x,000 ethnic Russian civilians. Some were killed in firm-to-house searches of civilian homes by paramilitary units wearing Nazi insignia on their uniforms. The Gestapo-like forces were searching for DPR and Russian passports and kidnapped those who had them.
The Russians cannot just stand up by and allow this to happen. And neither should Americans.
Western intellectuals have been quick to invoke R2P to back up the bombing of Libya and Syria and a host of other Middle East countries as a comprehend for U.Due south. aggression. But how many volition invoke the same doctrine when information technology tin can be applied to really salve people from large-scale ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity—if Russian federation is the one doing the saving? Likely none.
Part 2: Three Options for Russia
The way I see it, Russia currently has three main options:
1) The Donbass Plan—The Russian Army tin can coil into Donbass as peacekeepers, along the electric current contact line from N of Lugansk to Mariupol, later publicly announcing information technology to the globe a few hours alee of time, in society to warn the Ukrainian armed services against resistance, and to explain and justify its humanitarian intervention to the "international community." They would announce that they come in peace to stop the war crimes and the war, but that any military resistance from any source will be instantly eliminated, with the alert, "If you shoot at us, you die."
This ultimatum would exist non-negotiable and backed up by Russia'southward full military power, including air and missile forces, and applied non merely to Ukrainian war machine units, but to U.S. and NATO troops in Ukraine and U.Due south. and NATO ships in the Black Body of water, besides as anywhere else. It tin and should also include a reminder of Putin's previous quote that"Russian federation will respond to any attack by the destruction not only of the source of the attack, but also the source of the orders for the set on."
This option would cease all terrorist attacks against Donbass, permanently and completely, and would hopefully requite time for a diplomatic solution based on new political realities to be found. Information technology would also not entail the taking of whatever territory nether Ukraine control, but that which has long been alleged under "Russian occupation".
Once information technology is seen that the Russians reallyare coming, and they actuallyexercise mean business, it is unlikely that the Americans, NATO, or the Ukrainians will burn a shot. This is the to the lowest degree confrontational and least risky approach, equally it could be accomplished in a matter of 24 hours, with minimal bloodshed.
This may seem to be a pragmatic solution, but it has the least risk of finding a political compromise or permanent solution, in either the short or long terms. And while it would stop state of war crimes and protect Russian citizens, it would fail to resolve the overriding geopolitical problems Russia faces in Ukraine—argumentative war criminals on Russia's borders, the critical Crimean water security issue, foreign enemies in command of a neighboring state, etc. Ane advantage to this program, nonetheless, is that could be used as a first phase of the Novorussia Plan.
2) The 2nd option is The Novorussia Plan. Under this programme, the Russians can liberate the area known as Novorussia, about ane third of current Ukraine, with majority ethnic Russian populations, running along a line from Kharkov to Odessa (inclusive). This non only protects the vast majority of ethnic Russians (not just those in Donbass) from Ukrainian depredations, information technology solves the critical humanitarian water crunch in Crimea, and cuts Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea. This will also eviscerate all that is left of the Ukrainian economy and begin the process of the dismantling of Ukraine along ethnic lines while eliminating it as a state and as a threat to Russia once and for all.
It will as well serve as an instance to the world of the new political reality that Russia reserves the right to defend itself, unilaterally, if need be, and that the nation with the near powerful military in the world also has the political will to utilize information technology, if information technology has no other option and if it is forced to defend itself. This scenario has the best hope of long-term stability for the region, and even the possibility of a future re-integration of some parts of central Ukraine with Novorussia.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of war criminals would probably escape to the W, at least for a while.
3) The third plan, the Kyiv Plan, would be to go to Kyiv, which may or may not involve engaging in a major war. In the best case scenario for Russia, the U.S. and NATO would desert Ukraine in the face up of a existent fight and leave them on their own. Even if Ukraine did not capitulate in the beginning few hours, any actual disharmonize could exist finished in a few days, and the process of de-Nazification and war crime trials could begin. In an culling scenario, the U.S. and NATO would launch air strikes and the war could devolve into a quagmire for Russia, with the risk of nuclear state of war intensifying.
My belief is that the outcome of the open combat phase of the war would exist forth the lines of the Get-go Republic of iraq War, (with 80% – 90% of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering without firing a shot) merely the subsequent "occupation" would really exist a real liberation. With the removal of neo-Nazis and corrupt oligarchs from positions of power, and the improvement of life quality and life chances for a vast majority of the population, nearly Ukrainians (with the exception of the rabid fascists in Galicia or Poland) volition see the Russian Army every bit their grandparents saw the Red Regular army, as heroes and liberators from foreign occupation—which is exactly what they would be.
This may exist the to the lowest degree viable and least attractive of the three scenarios, but it is an option, and it would accept the required effect of stopping the state of war crimes against Russian citizens and eliminating Ukraine as an existential threat right on Russian federation'southward doorstep. It would also accept the benefit of the capture a large percentage of war criminals (Ukrainian and otherwise) as well as documents and testify that might be of great interest to history, Russia and the world—an option worthy of serious consideration.
Of all three of these plans, the 2d, the Novorussia Plan has the most benefit at the least cost. Only going to the contact line in Donbass is not sufficient to resolve the festering Ukrainian problem, and going all the manner to Kyiv may well cost more than it is worth. The Novorussia Plan resolves all critical issues at an acceptable cost, and tin can be implemented, if demand be, equally a second phase of the Donbass Plan.
With the Voronezh troops coming in through (or around) Kharkov, Airborne and amphibious troops landing in (or around) Odessa, the Rostov Ground forces coming up through Donbass, and the Crimean Army and Blackness Body of water Fleet working along the coast, along with the Bryansk Regular army waiting in reserve and ready to have Kyiv if required, the 700 Km Front, running from Kharkov to Odessa could be formed and held in a matter of days.
One time Russian fuel and human being assist outset to flow to liberated Novorussia, grateful citizens will non only not oppose Russian "occupation," they volition support information technology as genuine liberation, and even be ready to defend it themselves from the cold and hungry Ukrainians who will exist begging to be allowed to immigrate to Novorussia.
Incorrigible Nazis and war criminals will exist rounded upwardly, tried, and sentenced to piece of work battalions in Donbass, to repair every single thing destroyed or damaged in the war, including the monument at Saur Mogila and all monuments to the Red Army Liberators in the newly liberated lands of Novorussia. The majority of Russian soldiers will quickly be free to return to Russia, and get out the administration and protection of the newly liberated lands to their inhabitants.
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Russians visiting Saur Mogila memorial to cherry-red Regular army soldiers who liberated Donetsk from the Nazis in World War I. [Source: inthefray.org] -
Separatist flags fly over ruins. [Source: inthefray.org]
Vladimir Putin has more one time recounted a lesson that he learned as a youth on the tough streets of St. petersburg."If the fight is inevitable, it is best to strike beginning."
If war indeed breaks out, the main responsibility would remainder with the U.South. which triggered the current mess through its sponsorship of the February 2014 coup in Ukraine and gave a green-calorie-free for Ukraine to set on its Eastern provinces.
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About the Author
Russell Bentley is a sometime Texan who holds passports from Russia, the The states and the Donetsk People's Democracy.
Russell came to Donbass in 2014 and served in the VOSTOK Battalion and XAH Spetsnaz Battalion through 2015.
He and then transitioned into the Information War, equally a author and video reporter, countering Western propaganda about the situation in Ukraine and Donbass.
He currently works as an accredited state of war contributor in the DPR, is married and lives in a modest house with a big garden, v Km from the frontline in the ongoing Donbass State of war.
Russell can be reached at: russellbbentley@gmail.com.
Source: https://covertactionmagazine.com/2021/11/12/is-biden-looking-to-reignite-a-dirty-war-in-ukraine-recent-visit-by-u-s-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raises-concerns/